Tropical Depression May Form in Gulf This Weekend: Here’s Why Texas Might Avoid It

South Gulf or Caribbean: System May Reach Tropical Depression Stage

Ai Generated 

Tropical Threats Are Brewing: Here's What We Know

The National Hurricane Center says within the next few days, there's a chance for a tropical depression to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwest Caribbean Sea. While initial forecast models show the system might skirt Texas, portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast, especially from Louisiana to Florida, could start seeing the effects at the end of this week or the weekend.

Five Areas Under Watch: Atlantic Basin Tropical Activity

The NHC is monitoring five areas in the Atlantic basin that hold the possibility to develop into tropical systems. Just hours ago, Tropical Storm Kirk formed, but it's to remain over open waters, similar to two of its predecessors, Isaac and Joyce.

The Gulf and Caribbean: A Closer Look

Atmospheric Conditions

Over western Caribbean Sea, near Texas, hurricane forecasters have spotted a large but disorganized system of low atmospheric pressure. Such a low-pressure system can allow warm, moist air to rise into cooler atmospheric layers where it condenses and develops into storm clouds. As those thunderstorm clouds develop the counterclockwise rotation within the system can potentially organize them into a tropical cyclone.

It was producing rain and thunderstorms on Monday, but with warm sea-surface temperatures and favorable wind conditions, it may eventually develop into a tropical depression. Within the next few days, this system could move over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Developmental Stages

The weakest and least intense stage of a tropical cyclone is known as tropical depression. Its maximum sustained winds come at 38 mph. Once the winds strengthen further, the system can grow to be a tropical storm with wind speeds ranging from 39 to 73 mph. However, if wind speed reaches above 74 mph, then the system would be classified as hurricane.

"Residents in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should closely monitor this system," forecasters advised. The chance of the system developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days stands at 40%, with possible formation toward the end of the week or during the weekend.

Uncertainties Remain: What We Don't Know

It is uncertain where it will go as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, for which reason its exact route is unknown. On the surface, this system brings a lot of speculative values: timing, path, and intensity.

But there is historical precedence to use as a guide, and some models compare with Hurricane Helene, which formed in the western Caribbean. Like Helene, several steering factors could send this one east, away from the Texas Gulf Coast.

 

Steering Factors

In October, the central United States generally experience more cold fronts as Texas transitions into fall. These fronts can begin entering Southeast Texas, possibly steering the weaker tropical systems well out of Texas's way. Systems of high atmospheric pressure, which have a clockwise air flow, also tend to be disturbing to the tropical storms, pulling the storms away from Texas.

Signs That Development Will Continue

The NHC will be on the lookout for any sign that a tropical cyclone might be developing with deep, organized thunderstorm activity and the development of rotating winds around a well-defined center. Once these signs manifest, the system could mature into a tropical storm in response to an increase in heat energy from the warm waters of the ocean.

Know Your Weather

With this potential tropical depression, the coastal residents ought to keep following all the official updates that are issued out by the National Hurricane Center. Prepare for changes in strength, timing, or path that may change in the coming days.

Tropical Depression, Gulf of Mexico Storm, Caribbean Sea Weather, U.S. Gulf Coast Hurricane, National Hurricane Center